The race to net-zero is accelerating energy transition around the world and demand for fossil fuels, including natural gas, is anticipated to decline sharply. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global natural gas demand could fall by as much as 79% from 4,186 bcm in 2023 to 2050.

While fossil fuel imports once formed the backbone of energy security, rising geopolitical tensions, heightened price volatility, and strengthened decarbonization policies now mean that import dependence has become a direct vulnerability. A new paradigm for energy security is therefore required. This report provides a quantitative analysis of the economic benefits of reducing LNG demand and the renewable energy potential enabled by reinvesting the resulting savings. By comparing three pathways—maintaining 2024 demand levels, the Korean government’s current Long-Term Natural Gas Plan, and the IPCC 1.5°C scenario—the analysis shows that cutting LNG demand can strengthen both economic efficiency and energy self reliance.

Key Findings

▪ If the gas demand follows the 2024 levels, under the Korean Government’s 15th Long-Term Plan for Natural Gas Supply and Demand, cumulative LNG import volume would decrease by 77 milion tons, saving KRW 47 trillion(USD 34.4 billion).

▪ Under the IPCC 1.5°C scenario, LNG imports could decline by a further 250 million tons relative to the government plan, yielding an additional KRW 213 trillion(USD 156 billion) in fuel cost savings.

▪ The KRW 260 trillion in savings could finance renewable energy deployment equivalent to 184 GW of solar, 78 GW of onshore wind, or 34 GW of offshore wind, surpassing the government’s 11th Basic Plan on electricity targets (77.2 GW solar and 40.7 GW wind).