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Executive summary
Eighteen coal-fired power plants in Chungcheongnam-do, representing 9 GW of capacity, are scheduled for decommissioning by 2038, with the majority transitioning to gas-fired power generation and only a fraction remaining in the region. This transition raises significant concerns regarding regional job security and greenhouse gas emissions. Given the region's substantial renewable energy potential, including solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind, this study quantitatively analyzes the national and regional socio-economic impacts, focusing on employment and value-added creation from expanding renewable energy and gas-fired power generation up to 2050. The analysis covers five scenarios, incorporating the intrinsic characteristics of the renewable energy system, such as local capacity and flexibility options, within the context of Chungcheongnam-do, South Korea.
Key findings
Nationally, all renewable energy (RE) scenarios create more jobs than the LNG scenario. Job creation in the LNG scenario is 82,139 FTE, while in the RE scenarios, it ranges from 92,305 FTE to 3,012,447 FTE, depending on the specific scenario and additional instruments (LCR, ESS) considered.
Regionally, all RE scenarios create more jobs than the LNG scenario, except RE1, which surpasses LNG when either LCR or ESS is included, underscoring their importance. Job creation in the LNG scenario is 29,399 FTE, while in the RE scenarios, it ranges from 27,429 FTE to 1,085,509 FTE.
Expanding renewable energy capacity well beyond current plans could significantly increase regional employment. Under the RE3 scenario, it could create an average of 40,000 long-term jobs (FTE) across all sectors in the region—double the total employment in Chungcheongnam-do’s electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply industry in 2022.
Nationally and regionally, all RE scenarios generate higher value-added impacts than the LNG scenario, except RE1. However, in the RE1 scenario, incorporating both ESS and LCR results in a more favorable impact compared to the LNG scenario. At the national level, value-added creation in the LNG scenario is estimated at 10,602 billion KRW, while in the RE scenarios, it ranges from 6,908 to 205,307 billion KRW. At the regional level, valueadded creation in the LNG scenario is 4,631 billion KRW, while in the RE scenarios, it ranges from 2,416 to 74,194 billion KRW. If the renewable energy market potential is fully realized as in the RE3 scenario, the accumulated value-added creation by 2050 in the region is projected to account for between 23.44% and 52.65% of Chungcheongnam-do’s 2022 GRDP.
When considering total investment costs, renewable energy provides greater economic benefits than gas-fired power generation. The induced value-added coefficient values indicate that renewable energy provides greater economic benefits than gas-fired power generation and can contribute more to the regional economy than key industries like steel and chemicals during the operation period.
Leveraging the region’s renewable energy potential and promoting local capacity, alongside flexibility options, offers a more socio-economically beneficial alternative to gas-fired power generation for both Chungcheongnam-do and South Korea, while ensuring a cleaner environment for future generations. Therefore, it is crucial to prepare and implement effective policies in advance to realize these benefits.