Projections for LNG demand were developed based on eight scenarios, based on the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, reflecting the government’s power sector and long-term gas supply plans, and the government’s 2050 Carbon Neutrality scenario.

Most scenarios indicate a mid- to long-term decrease in LNG demand, leading to a decline in the utilization rates of LNG regasification facilities.

The value of stranded assets was estimated by calculating terminal profits based on the average LNG margin over the past four years and discounting them to present value at a rate of 4.5%. The calculation suggests a potential stranded asset could be between KRW 6.6 trillion to KRW 12.3 trillion. In particular, the Dangjin LNG terminal, which is currently under construction by Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS), the stranded asset risk for a single project could reach up to KRW 877 billion.

The findings indicate that Korea’s continued investment directed to LNG infrastructure is not sustainable in terms of profitability and policy alignment over the long term. To mitigate stranded asset risks, LNG terminal expansion plans, including the second phase of the Dangjin LNG Terminal, should be terminated, with investment redirected toward renewable energy and green hydrogen projects