Can South Korea achieve its 2030 target for NDC amid current emissions trends?

• South Korea pledged to reduce a total of 5 Mt of CO₂eq in the agricultural sector by 2030 compared to 2018 levels. However, with less than five years remaining, emissions from the sector continue rise.

• If the current trajectory continues and agricultural emissions in 2025 remain similar to 2022 levels, South Korea will need to reduce approximately 5.6 Mt CO₂eq to meet its 2030 target of 17.2 Mt CO₂eq.

MAFRA needs to cut additional 3.9 Mt CO₂eq to meet the 2030 targets in the agricultural sector

• South Korea’s total government expenditure for 2025—

  including both budget and fund accounts—amounts to KRW 677.4 trillion KRW. Of this, the GHG-Reduction-Aware Budget totals 12.1 trillion KRW, accounting for 1.8% of the total government expenditure.

• MAFRA amounts to KRW 221.8 billion KRW, accounting for 1.8% of the total GHG-Reduction-Aware Budget. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector represents approximately 3.5% of the total national GHG emissions. This discrepancy suggests

  that the Ministry should double its GHG-Reduction-Aware Budget to reflect the sector’s contribution to national emissions levels.

• Over the five-year period from 2025 to 2030, MAFRA is projected to reduce approximately 1.68 Mt CO₂eq. However,

  to achieve the 2030 target, the Ministry must slash 5.6 Mt CO₂eq, leaving a gap of 3.49 Mt CO₂eq.