Discussions on the low-carbon transition of steel industry have largely focused on short-term burdens, such as increased upfront investment costs, potential employment adjustments, and the contraction of local economies. In particular, regions with high dependence on the steel industry have consistently raised concerns about the potential negative impacts of the transition process. However, these concerns stem less from the transition itself than from the structural risks that may accumulate if the transition is delayed or implemented insufficiently.

Under these circumstances, quantitative analysis examining how differences in the pace of the low-carbon transition affect the broader national economy remains limited. Given the steel industry’s extensive linkages with numerous upstream and downstream sectors, analyses confined to individual industries or short-term effects are insufficient to fully capture the net impact of the transition.

To address this gap, this study compares the socioeconomic impacts of different transition pathways in the steel industry on the national economy and quantifies the opportunity costs associated with delays in transition. Ultimately, the study aims to demonstrate that the low-carbon transition of the steel industry should not be viewed merely as a climate policy burden, but rather as a driver of new economic growth and job creation across the wider economy. The findings also provide policy implications for both government and industry in designing effective transition strategies.