Methane’s high warming potential makes rapid reductions essential to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
While South Korea’s 2030 Methane Emissions Reduction Roadmap demonstrates commitment to the Global Methane Pledge’s 30% reduction target from 2020 levels by 2030, it lacks clear alignment with Korea’s long-term carbon neutrality goals and the 1.5°C limit.
Research reveals that the energy sector must reach negative emissions by 2040, as the agriculture and waste sectors face inherent reduction limits.
November 12, 2024 – As global leaders gather in Azerbaijan for COP29, alignment on global methane emissions is expected to be one of the core agenda items across energy, waste, and agriculture sectors. With increasing pressure for countries to deliver their updated NDC targets in 2025, new report on South Korea’s methane emission reduction efforts by Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC) reveals that South Korea’s 2030 Methane Emissions Reduction Roadmap should be re-evaluated in alignment with 2050 Paris 1.5 degree targets and requires Korea-specific sector -specific emission reduction strategies, rather than relying on blanket sectoral targets suggested under the Global Methane Pledge.
Methane is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) 28 times that of carbon dioxide over 100 years, and about 80 times over a 20-year span. The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC)’s Global Methane Assessment estimates that a reduction of anthropogenic methane by 45% by 2030 could contribute to the avoidance of 0.3°C of global warming – which is crucial to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The increased importance and global consensus on methane mitigation has culminated in the launch of the Global Methane Pledge at COP26 in Glasgow.
Having signed the Global Methane Pledge in 2021, the Korean government announced its national-level Methane Emissions Reduction Roadmap through the Presidential 2050 Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Commission two years later, in November 2023. Korea has pledged to reduce its methane emissions by 30% in 2030 compared to 2020 emission levels, and the roadmap served to set sectoral targets –in agriculture and livestock, energy, and waste – to ensure the achievement of the country’s methane reduction commitments.
To examine whether Korea’s 2030 targets are in line with the broader Paris-aligned pathway to 2050, the report utilizes IPCC's SSP-RCP scenarios to model Korea’s “methane budget” – derived by calculating global methane emissions permitted in alignment with achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C targets and allocating the emissions that Korea is responsible for – based on three socio-economic indicators: 2020 National Emissions, Population and GDP per capita, which yielded different methane mitigation pathways.
Amongst the three scenarios, the population-based projection which more accurately captures both domestic and overseas methane emissions footprint, finds that South Korea’s methane reduction responsibility should be significantly higher than the current 30% reduction by 2030 target. While the current roadmap calls for 8.3 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent methane reductions by 2030, the population-based projection calls for 18 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent reductions, which is over double the current target.
While Korea ranked approximately 50th globally in methane emissions in 2020, its population of 50 million ranks within the top 20 worldwide. This underscores the need for more aggressive and comprehensive reduction measures and policies to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C than those currently outlined in the roadmap.
Figure 1: Methane Reduction Pathways Through 2050 Based on National Emissions-based and Population-based Projections
The report also analyzed maximum sectoral reduction pathways in the agriculture and livestock, energy, and waste sectors. Given the inherent constraints of reducing short-term methane emissions from food consumption and waste generation, the agriculture/livestock and waste sectors initially show a slower downward trajectory. On the other hand, the energy sector requires more aggressive emission reductions, achieving negative reductions after 2040. This means that Korea must fully mitigate domestic energy methane emissions, as well as reduce emissions from fossil fuel transportation and imports, and emissions from overseas Korean assets and projects.
Jinsun Roh, Methane & HFC team lead at SFOC said “the modeling results are a clear indication that the current Methane Emissions Reduction Roadmap’s 2030 focus and lack of 2050 vision risks falling short of Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C climate threshold. Leveraging the global momentum of COP29 and the upcoming 2025 NDC update cycle, the Korean government needs to re-evaluate and re-define the country’s Global Methane Pledge – given that the population-based projections require more ambitious methane reductions.”
Figure 2: Projected (Sector-Specific) Reduction Pathway to a 30% Methane Reduction by 2030
With the US and China expected to announce new targets for the oil and gas industry’s methane emissions in Baku later today, and the COP presidency’s focus on the proposed Methane Reduction from Organic Waste Declaration, it is critical for countries to evaluate their sector specific emissions targets. The report revealed that a sector-specific approach should be taken in developing country-level methane reduction roadmaps, as the case of South Korea demonstrated that simply basing targets on the Global Methane Pledge could fail to adequately reflect the pace of transition and sector-specific reduction potential in Korea.
ENDS.
Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC) is an independent nonprofit organization that works to accelerate global greenhouse gas emissions reduction and energy transition. SFOC leverages research, litigation, community organizing, and strategic communications to deliver practical climate solutions and build movements for change.
For media inquiries, please reach out to Kate Kalinova, Communications Officer, at kate.kalinova@forourclimate.org.
SFOC spokespeople available for comments on the report and other methane-related issues at COP29:
· [Week 1&2 - Nov. 11-21] Jinsun Roh, Methane & HFC lead at SFOC: jinsun.roh@forourclimate.org
· [Week 1 - Nov. 11-18] Axel Lemus, Analyst: axel.lemus@forourclimate.org
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