This November, as the world turns its eyes to Brazil’s Amazonian city of Belém for the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP30), expectations are high and pressure is mounting. COP30, slated for November 10-21, 2025, comes at a crucial juncture where a retreat from multilateralism exacerbates the first Global Stocktake’s prediction of a looming 1.5°C overshoot. The Belém summit will test whether global climate governance can withstand these threats and turn ambition into credible, measurable progress.
COP30’s host city has been a point of controversy since its announcement, citing capacity and environmental impact issues. Belém, the gateway to the Amazon River, has undergone significant transformation to accommodate the world’s largest annual climate gathering, and it’s come at a high cost to both locals and the environment. Critics point out COP30-commissioned construction projects tearing through protected forest areas and displacing local businesses and residents as housing prices spike amid rising temperatures and deeply entrenched income inequality. The irony of a COP convening in the heart of the Amazon, one of the world’s most important ecosystems, against the backdrop of Brazil’s oil aspirations cannot be understated, especially with Belém set to serve as a logistical hub for drilling and exploration operations.
Yet, perhaps that’s the point. This year’s COP30 negotiations will take place right in the middle of the climate paradox, that perpetual tension between the right to pursue socioeconomic development and the need to take action to save what is left of a planet groaning under pressure. Belém’s selection is not an accident, but a message: if COP30 cannot deliver, it is in no place to condemn.
What to Expect from COP30
The Brazilian COP30 Presidency has outlined three priorities for this year’s negotiations: reinforcing multilateralism, connecting the climate regime to people’s everyday lives and accelerating implementation of the Paris Agreement through institutional reform and adaptation. High on the agenda is the submission of the 2035 NDCS, as major economies, including South Korea, have yet to put forward their commitments. Only 63 of 193 UN member states have submitted NDCs so far. In his fourth letter to the international community, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago described NDCs, which outline member states’ plans to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as “the instruments of climate action”, highlighting their key role in accelerating the global energy transition and ecosystem restoration.
Another crucial focus area will be that of adaptation. The Eighth Letter from the COP30 Presidency makes an impassioned call for states to address what it terms this “underfunded and undervalued” aspect of climate action amid intensifying extreme weather events and resulting development setbacks. It welcomes the recently introduced National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) approach designed to jumpstart NDC implementation. Discussions will range from the need for significantly increased adaptation financing and nature-based solutions to developing strong institutional frameworks, converging on the need to protect the most vulnerable and secure development gains amid the climate crisis.
Nature and people will also take center stage, with Brazil taking advantage of Belém’s Amazonian ties to garner support for the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) set to incentivize forest-rich countries to halt industrial deforestation, reduce biodiversity loss and protect the rights of indigenous and forest-dependent communities. On the social front, development and equity will remain hot topics, with gender equality, access to education and job creation standing as key pillars of the COP30 Action Agenda.
Industry and energy transition debate will continue to intensify, particularly surrounding hard-to-abate sectors like steel and shipping under pressure to show concrete decarbonization progress before 2030. Brazil has just launched the Belém 4× Commitment for Sustainable Fuels initiative based on findings from a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) which indicate a fourfold increase in sustainable fuel deployment is both technically and economically viable under an accelerated transition scenario. With Italy, Japan and India already on board, COP30 will serve as a platform to generate additional support for the increased use of alternative fuels including hydrogen, biofuels and biogas. This is a major concern. A recent study from the Transport and Environment think thank revealed how biofuels - and the deforestation and land use change their production requires - account for 16% more of global CO2 emissions than the fossil fuels they are designed to replace. A 4x scaleup will likely require land area the size of France, with serious ecological consequences for biodiversity and agricultural systems. Crops-based biofuels have already severe limitations in terms of land use and food competition. In contrast, solar panels could create the same amount of energy while using just 3% of the land biofuel production demands.
COP30’s Call for UNFCCC Reform
COP30’s biggest test will be one of strengthening the multilateral institutional frameworks which ensure actual implementation in a deeply fractured negotiations environment. Reform of the UNFCCC system is essential if it is to deliver real-world outcomes while racing against the climate clock.
As the 1.5°C goal slips further out of reach, the UNFCCC process must evolve to stay relevant and effective. In an era where key global players are continuously placing climate action on the back burner, COP30 is under pressure to turn the tide. This means giving priority to reinforcing multilateral cooperation on climate while capitalizing on the UNFCCC’s normative influence to maintain pressure on governments and stakeholders to back pledges up with action. Efforts to close the Paris Agreement’s implementation gap must start with reestablishing a shared understanding of what net-zero looks like on a global scale and reevaluating the systems designed to assess and ensure progress.
To ensure follow-through, the COP30 Action Agenda is set to produce Plans to Accelerate Solutions, concise work plans with measurable outcomes aligned with the 2028 Global Stocktake cycle. These voluntary, time-bound plans will be multistakeholder-driven, incorporating input from governments, businesses and civil society and are to be continuously tracked through a stringent monitoring and evaluation framework. In a best-case scenario, these Plans will play a key role in holding stakeholders accountable for their role in ensuring climate action goes beyond the negotiation table.
Mutirão: Belém’s Hopes for a COP that Works
This year’s COP negotiations are set to take inspiration from the Brazilian indigenous concept of mutirão, referring to the idea of collective, non-hierarchical mobilization in pursuit of a mutually beneficial goal. The COP30 Presidency’s proposed Global Mutirão Framework hopes to build a bottom-up, all-of-society effort to enact climate action, welcoming stakeholders from farmers to indigenous peoples to subnational governments and companies to present “self-determined contributions” – local level NDCs, so to speak - based on their expertise.
These efforts will be bolstered by four independently functioning Leadership Circles, designed to advise and strengthen COP30 negotiations.
The “Circle of COP Presidents” will bring together post-Paris Agreement COP leadership to help strengthen global climate governance and accelerate implementation, while the “Circle of Peoples” will amplify indigenous, Afro-descendant and other marginalized voices championing the integration of traditional knowledge and solutions into mainstream climate policy. Brazil’s Minister of Finance will chair the “Circle of Finance Ministers”, advising the COP30 Presidency on actionable solutions addressing climate finance issues, while the host country’s Environment and Climate Change Minister will lead the “Global Ethical Stocktake Circle” aimed at promoting diverse, inclusive dialogue and ensuring ethical approaches to these global mobilization efforts.
Asia Climate Solutions Pavilion
For Asia, the COP30 Action Agenda sets clear benchmarks for energy transition, climate finance, and industrial decarbonization. At COP30, Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC) is returning with another edition of the Asia Climate Solutions Pavillion, under the theme Asia: The Climate Pivot Point. This year’s pavilion will feature over 60 events hosted by SFOC and over 30 partners over a two-week period, highlighting Asia’s emerging role as a pioneering region in the global energy transition. It will serve as ground zero for invigorating conversations on the innovation, ambition and collective will needed to align efforts to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors and scale up renewables expansion across Asia and beyond.
Interested in learning more about how Asia is leading the charge towards a world where energy is done differently? Visit the ACS Pavillion in the COP30 Blue Zone between November 10-21, 2025. For detailed information on how to register your attendance, visit the official ACS Pavillion Calendar.
Stay tuned for on-the-ground updates via SFOC’s official LinkedIn channel.
See you in Belém!
