At Solutions for Our Climate (SFOC), we're committed to providing rigorous, data-driven insights into the environmental impacts of energy systems. Our latest study delves into LNG’s lifecycle emissions enabled by LNG carriers, revealing startling findings about their contribution to climate change.
Key Findings
Our research reveals that a typical 175,000 cubic meters (cbm) capacity LNG carrier enables approximately 12,329,499 tCO2e/year of emissions throughout the LNG lifecycle.
Over a 30-year lifespan, a single carrier contributes nearly 370 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions.
The annual carbon footprint of LNG carriers currently under construction collectively reaches 4.3 billion tCO2e/year, surpassing India’s annual CO2 emissions.
Our Enhanced LCA Methodology
Building on the National Resources Defence Council's 2020 report, "Sailing to Nowhere," we've developed an enhanced Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. This approach incorporates:
The latest research, including Sphera's 2021 study and peer-reviewed study by Howarth RW. The greenhouse gas footprint of LNG exported from the U.S. (2024)
A harmonization methodology based on input from NRDC and confidential data from our shipping partners
Consideration of upstream, midstream, and downstream operation emissions across the entire LNG lifecycle
Our study stands out by:
Utilizing the most recent data on methane emissions
Including often-overlooked indirect emissions
Providing both 20-year and 100-year global warming potential perspectives, which offer insights into both short-term and long-term climate impacts
Life Cycle Inventory (Emission Boundary)
The following table outlines the key stages in the LNG lifecycle and the data sources used for each stage in our analysis:
Link to detailed methodology.
The Methane Problem
A critical finding of our study is the significant impact of methane leakage throughout the LNG lifecycle. With methane's potent warming effect, even small leaks can negate any potential climate benefits of LNG over other fossil fuels. For instance, leaks as small as 2.5% of total gas volume can offset LNG’s CO2 advantages over coal in electricity generation over a 20-year timeframe.
[Figure 1] Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GWP 20) for each Life cycle stage of LNG Exports
[Figure 2] LNG Carrier Scenario
Calculation Process:
175,000 cbm capacity LNG carrier
2.1 million cbm with an assumed 12 voyages per year calculates to 945,000 tonnes LNG transported yearly
Under a life span of 30 years, the greenhouse gas emissions from this carrier under the AR5 20-yr GWP is approx. 369.88 mt CO2e
This carrier enables 12,329,499 tCO2e/year from transporting LNG to be converted to electricity
Implications for the Shipping and Shipbuilding Industry
Our findings have serious implications for the LNG shipbuilding and shipping industry. As the world transitions to cleaner energy sources, the demand for LNG carriers may face significant challenges. These results underscore the urgent need for the industry to invest in and explore alternative, low-emission fuel sources and cargoes for the maritime industry.
To learn more about these implications, we encourage you to explore our related publications:
[Report] LNG Carriers: The Floating Pipeline Powering Global Gas Expansion - Unveiling its Hidden Enablers, also available on YouTube (Eng / Kor)
[Report] High and Dry: The Global Energy Transition's Looming Impact on the LNG and Oil shipbuilding industry
