The Paris Agreement is built around a central idea: countries share global climate goals, but each decides how it will contribute to achieving them.  Adopted at COP21 in 2015, the treaty was a first: nearly every country in the world committed to climate action. Its predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol, set binding emission targets for developed countries only. Paris set up a recurring cycle instead. Countries make commitments, act at home, report progress and raise ambition over time. But does this system actually work, and what does it tell us about progress? 

1. Commitment - What Do Countries Commit To? 

The agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The target:1.5°C. It also seeks to strengthen adaptation and align financial flows with low-emission, climate-resilient development. 

At the core is a five-year cycle of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) . Paris does not impose identical targets. Each country sets their own contributions according to their national circumstances, development priorities and capabilities. Each successive NDC is expected to go further than the previous one and reflect the country's highest possible ambition. 

This nationally determined approach makes targets hard to compare. Some countries set absolute emissions limits. Others target emissions intensity, or cuts against projected levels. A bigger headline percentage does not necessarily mean a bigger cut. 

Countries must legally prepare NDCs and pursue domestic measures. But they are not legally bound to hit their own targets. 

2. Implementation - How Do Commitments Become Action?  

An NDC sets out what a country intends to achieve. Delivering it requires governments to integrate climate targets into domestic laws, sectoral policies, public budgets and investment decisions. Voluntary long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) can help connect five-year commitments with longer-term economic and development plans.  

However, that connection is not always clear. A 2023 UNFCCC review  found that 47% of the long-term strategies assessed did not explain how they related to countries’ NDCs. 

Chile illustrates how countries can establish domestic mechanisms for implementation. Building on its 2020 NDC and 2021 long-term climate strategy, Chile’s 2022 Climate Change Framework Law requires seven sectoral mitigation plans, covering areas including energy, transport, agriculture and mining. Each plan has a sectoral emissions budget, translating national commitments into measures and responsibilities across government. 

 Beyond planning, implementation depends on financial and technical capacity. The Paris Agreement requires developed countries to provide financial resources to assist developing countries with mitigation and adaptation, alongside broader cooperation on technology transfer and capacity-building. 

South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP)  illustrates both the potential and uncertainty of international support. Launched in 2021 with an initial $8.5 billion pledge, it supports the country's transition away from coal while assisting affected workers and communities. Despite the US withdrawal in 2025, other partners continued their support. By March 2026, $14.36 billion had been pledged, but only $6.12 billion allocated.  

3. Assessment - How Is Progress Assessed? 

The Paris Agreement assesses progress at two levels: what individual countries are doing and whether their collective efforts are sufficient to meet global goals. 

Countries generally submit Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) every two years, beginning in 2024, with more flexibility for least developed countries and small island developing states. These reports cover national emissions, progress towards NDCs, climate policies and relevant support. They also undergo international technical review. 

At the global level, the Global Stocktake (GST) assesses collective progress every five years. The first concluded at COP28 in 2023. Its verdict: collective efforts remained insufficient to meet the Paris temperature goals. It called on countries to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and triple global renewable-energy capacity by 2030. These findings are intended to inform countries’ next NDCs. 

Are We on Track to Meet the Paris Goals? 

A November 2025 UNFCCC update estimated that fully implementing newly submitted NDCs from 113 Parties, representing 69% of global emissions in 2019, would bring those countries’ collective emissions to around 12% below 2019 levels by 2035. These are projected reductions if commitments are delivered, not emissions cuts already achieved. 

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 projects 2.3–2.5°C of warming this century if NDCs are fully implemented, compared with approximately 2.8°C under current policies.  

Both exceed the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. 

Paris has built the machinery for climate action. What it cannot do is force countries to use it. Each COP is a chance to close that gap. So far, every round has left it open. 

What to watch at COP31 in November 2026 

• The ambition gap: how far 2035 targets fall short of 1.5°C, and which major emitters have yet to submit or strengthen their NDCs. 

• Transparency: what the first BTRs and their reviews reveal about actual progress. 

• Finance: progress on the new climate finance goal agreed at COP29 and whether pledges turn into delivery.